Business Dynamics : Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World
Sterman, John
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McGraw-Hill
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Introduction
Part I. Perspective and Process
1. Learning In and About Complex Systems
2. System Dynamics In Action 3. The Modeling Process
4. Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems
Part II. Tools for Systems Thinking 5. Causal Loop Diagrams
6. Stocks and Flows
7. Dynamics of Stocks and Flows
8. Closing the Loop: Dynamics of Simple Structures
Part III. The Dynamics of Growth
9. S-Shaped Growth: Epidemics, Innovation Diffusion, and the Growth of New Products
10. Path Dependence and Positive Feedback
Part IV. Tools for Modeling Dynamic Systems
11. Delays
12. Coflows and Aging Chains
13. Modeling Decision Making
14. Forming Non-linear Relationships
Part V. Instability and Oscillation
15. Modeling Human Behavior: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations?
16. Forecasts and Fudge Factors: Modeling Expectation Formation
17. Supply Chains and the Origin of Oscillations
18. Managing Supply Chains in Manufacturing
19. The Labor Supply Chain and the Origin of Busin... ess Cycles
20. The Invisible Hand Sometimes Shakes: Commodity Cycles
Part VI. Validation and Model Testing
21. Truth and Beauty
Part VII. Commencement
22. Challenges for the Future
Appendix A: Numerical Integration
Appendix B: Noise
References
Index
Sterman, John [Àú]
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