외국도서

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경제경영/인문사회

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심리/역사

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• 제휴몰 주문 시 고객보상, 일부 이벤트 참여 및 증정품 증정, 하루/당일 배송에서 제외되므로 참고 바랍니다.

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• 도서  > 외국도서  > 경제경영/인문사회  > 심리/역사

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• Named a Most-Anticipated Title by Foreign Policy and Politico "In The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War, Mr. Sciutto depicts a world made more dangerous by Chinese and Russian expansionism. Drawing on his experience as CNN’s chief national-security correspondent, Mr. Sciutto has written an eye-witness account of history as it unfolds." ―Wall Street Journal "Sciutto takes no pleasure in playing Cassandra, warning of a world that for all its 21st-century sophistication and irony is backsliding towards Greek tragedy." ―The Guardian “A powerful and well-written warning to us all.” ―The Cipher Brief "The Return of Great Powers is a brilliant warning shot across the world's bow. If we want to avoid a new world war, our leaders are going to have to pull the blinkers from their eyes -- and this superb book can help shatter our complaisance. Jim Sciutto is saying, quite clearly, ‘Wake up, folks. A world war could easily happen.’ It is a warning worth heeding.” ―Admiral James Stavridis, 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and Vice Chairman for Global Affairs at The Carlyle Group. His latest book is 2054: A Novel, about AI, geopolitics, and civil conflict in America. “Jim’s prior book, Shadow War, opened my eyes to the difficulty in addressing Russia and China in a ‘below the traditional threshold’ worldwide battle for the future. The Return of Great Powers is a sobering but necessary look at the future of warfare, influence, and competition. If the US wants to remain competitive, and do so in an environment of peace, leaders would do themselves a service to read this and understand the future challenges. They aren’t going away, and the US cannot pretend the future isn’t close. It comes before we know it, and we’ll either be prepared or we won’t. Jim clearly understand that preparedness and sober assessment is the best way to avoid conflict, and leave our children better off than we are.” ―Adam Kinzinger, Former US Representative (Illinois)
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• Chapter Page Preface xi Prologue: The Gathering Storm 3 Chapter 1 Great Power Warfare 21 Chapter 2 Dividing Lines 55 Chapter 3 Flashpoint Baltic Sea 99 Chapter 4 Russia's Next Targets 125 Chapter 5 Target Taiwan 147 Chapter 6 Taiwan's Existential Questions 169 Chapter 7 "No Longer Unthinkable" 197 Chapter 8 A Multifront War 225 Chapter 9 Trump Wild Card 256 Chapter 10 Paths to Peace 276 Epilogue: The Long War 316 Acknowledgments 325 Notes 329 Index 339
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• CHAPTER ONE GREAT POWER WARFARE 3:00 A.M. PHONE CALL Close to 3:00 a.m., on Monday, February 21, 2022, a member of Congress I know well woke me up in Kyiv with a call from Washington and a question. "Has the State Department or White House warned you guys at all about what's coming in Kyiv?" he asked me. I knew that Russia had surrounded Ukraine with a massive force and was in the final stages of preparations for an invasion-and I knew that I was then lying in a bed in a hotel at the center of Russia's prime target. But I wondered if I was missing something. Was the attack going to be even larger than feared? So I pressed him: "Warned us about what specifically?" "For the hell Putin is going to unleash on the capital," he said. "Are your people aware? Are you ready?" By then, CNN and several other US and European networks had stationed our teams at the InterContinental Hotel in downtown Kyiv. It was an ideal though precarious location for witnessing the launch of a modern war. Situated on the eastern edge of the capital, where the city is perched on high ground over the Dnipro River, the hotel provides clear views of the eastern and northern approaches to Kyiv-the most likely paths of a Russian invasion. But the hotel was also right across the street from not one but two juicy targets for Russian air and missile strikes: the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the headquarters of the national police. News agencies, including CNN, had made sure to communicate the location of their staffs to the Russian authorities. But as a very good friend of mine in the Pentagon had warned me a few days earlier, "The Russians don't have very good aim." Now wide-awake, I thanked the congressman and called one of my bosses in the US to share the congressman's warning. "Had we had any communication with Biden administration officials about a particular threat to this location?" I asked him. By then, I had a pretty good idea of what the first wave of the invasion would look like. According to US intelligence assessments, Russia planned a "shock-and-awe" barrage of missile and air strikes on the Ukrainian capital, modeled to some degree on the shock-and-awe campaign that had prefaced the US invasion of Iraq, nearly nineteen years earlier. On March 20, 2003, as the US assault on the Iraqi capital began, I'd been sitting at a Romanian airfield, surrounded by a battalion of US Green Berets, ready to board a night flight into Iraq. The accounts we heard over the radio were awe-inspiring and frightening. Two decades later, as committed as I was to be on the ground in Ukraine to cover the coming war, I was not entirely prepared to be engulfed in the shock and awe myself this time around. The prospect of a punishing air assault on Kyiv was not a surprise. I had been warning CNN since the previous November that US intelligence agencies were forecasting a wave of air and missile strikes as the first salvos of the Russian invasion. We had staffed up in the capital... with those threats in mind. But the call merited a discussion. Were we truly ready? My boss said he'd reach out to the White House and hung up the line. PERSISTING DOUBTS Still in bare feet and with my hair standing on end, I walked down the hall from my room to the suite turned CNN workspace to share the news with our staff and security team. Skepticism reigned. One colleague told me the congressman could be just looking to get in good with a TV reporter. Others wondered if I'd allowed myself to become a conduit for US disinformation. The doubters were not outliers. Despite repeated public warnings from US and NATO officials, many European and American commentators were not convinced. The word "imminent," as US officials had been describing the invasion for a handful of weeks now, had become a punch line. What does "imminent" mean? people asked. Tomorrow? Next week? Next year? The doubts didn't come from nowhere. US intelligence had missed Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea-and memories of Iraq's nonexistent WMD endured. "Why should we believe them this time?" they asked me. I understood the doubts from years covering the intelligence agencies and holding a top secret security clearance myself. Over decades, the US had built the most comprehensive and capable intelligence-gathering apparatus in history, but its products required reading with a critical eye. However, the assessments of Russia's invasion plans were different, because the invading force was visible, laid out right before the watchful eyes of US surveillance satellites and aircraft. And what they saw was alarming. Russia was readying for war. "Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were phantoms," I told them. "The Russian invasion force is right along the border in 3D. They're not guessing this time." US agencies had collected other revealing intelligence as well. In a triumph of signals collection, the intel community had penetrated Russian communications networks. They now had direct access to Russian battlefield communications. They were listening in real time as Russian commanders discussed in detail preparing and positioning their units for attack. Yet the doubts extended far beyond our newsroom, with some NATO leaders downplaying or even dismissing the more ominous warnings of an impending Russian invasion. Tensions broke out into the public discussion even between US and Ukrainian officials. On January 28, Ukrainian president Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv, "There is a feeling abroad that there is war here. That's not the case." Ukrainian officials were fearful in part that the more dire warnings might cause panic among the Ukrainian population, with the economic costs of fleeing businesses and a panicked end to travel in and out of Ukraine. But more broadly, Ukrainian officials told CNN privately, they feared that Ukraine was becoming a pawn in a game of geopolitical chess between the US and Russia. With detectable pique, Zelensky said, "I can't be like other politicians who are grateful to the United States just for being the United States." Russian officials were of course eager to dismiss the fears of war as well. On February 10, two weeks before Russian forces stormed into Ukraine, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stood beside then UK foreign secretary Liz Truss and derided the West's warnings as purely emotional. "The deployment of Russian troops on our own territory causes incomprehensible anxiety and very strong emotions among our British colleagues and other Western representatives," Lavrov said. "Unlike the hundreds and thousands of British troops stationed in the Baltics." Beyond the public differences over just how real or imminent the Russian invasion threat was, there was disagreement within the alliance over the possibility of finding a so-called diplomatic off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. President Emmanuel Macron of France's dialogue with Putin continued into the week of the invasion. Few begrudged Macron's attempts at peace. However, at the core of those efforts appeared to be a misreading of Russian intentions. Macron told Le Journal du Dimanche on February 6, eighteen days before the invasion, that Moscow's goal was "not Ukraine, but a clarification of the rules . . . with NATO and the EU." Here was the French leader saying that Putin had no territorial ambitions in Ukraine, only a desire to establish, among other things, that Ukraine would not be joining NATO anytime soon. "We must protect our European brothers by proposing a new balance capable of preserving their sovereignty and peace," Macron said. "This must be done while respecting Russia and understanding the contemporary traumas of this great people and great nation." The fiction that Russian ambitions were limited to preventing Ukraine from entering the NATO alliance would endure even after the invasion, on both sides of the Atlantic, as some conservative commentators and lawmakers in the US shifted blame for the invasion from Moscow to western l
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인터파크도서는 고객님의 단순 변심에 의한 교환과 반품에 드는 비용은 고객님이 지불케 됩니다. 단, 상품이나 서비스 자체의 하자로 인한 교환 및 반품은 무료로 반품 됩니다. 교환 및 반품이 가능한 경우 상품을 공급 받은 날로부터 7일이내 가능 공급받으신 상품의 내용이 표시, 광고 내용과 다르거나 다르게 이행된 경우에는 공급받은 날로부터 3개월 이내,    혹은 그사실을 알게 된 날 또는 알 수 있었던 날로부터 30일 이내 상품에 아무런 하자가 없는 경우 소비자의 고객변심에 의한 교환은 상품의 포장상태 등이 전혀 손상되지 않은 경우에 한하여 가능 교환 및 반품이 불가능한 경우 구매확정 이후(오픈마켓상품에 한함) 고객님의 책임 있는 사유로 상품 등이 멸실 또는 훼손된 경우    (단, 상품의 내용을 확인하기 위하여 포장 등을 훼손한 경우는 제외) 시간이 지남에 따라 재판매가 곤란할 정도로 물품의 가치가 떨어진 경우 포장 개봉되어 상품 가치가 훼손된 경우 다배송지의 경우 반품 환불 다배송지의 경우 다른 지역의 반품을 동시에 진행할 수 없습니다. 1개 지역의 반품이 완료된 후 다른 지역 반품을 진행할 수 있으므로, 이점 양해해 주시기 바랍니다. 중고상품의 교환 중고상품은 제한된 재고 내에서 판매가 이루어지므로, 교환은 불가능합니다. 오픈마켓 상품의 환불 오픈마켓상품에 대한 책임은 원칙적으로 업체에게 있으므로, 교환/반품 접수시 반드시 판매자와 협의 후 반품 접수를 하셔야하며,    반품접수 없이 반송하거나, 우편으로 보낼 경우 상품 확인이 어려워 환불이 불가능할 수 있으니 유의하시기 바랍니다.

배송예정일 안내 인터파크 도서는 모든 상품에 대해 배송완료예정일을 웹사이트에 표시하고 있습니다. <인터파크 직배송 상품> 상품은 월~토요일 오전 10시 이전 주문분에 대하여 당일 출고/당일 배송완료를 보장하는 상품입니다. 상품은 서울지역/평일 주문분은 당일 출고/익일 배송완료를 보장하며, 서울외지역/평일 주문분의 경우는 오후 6시까지 주문분에 대하여 익일 배송완료를 보장하는 상품입니다. (단, 월요일은 12시까지 주문에 한함) 상품은, 입고예정일(제품출시일)+택배사배송일(1일)에 배송완료를 보장합니다. ~ 상품은 유통특성상 인터파크에서 재고를 보유하지 않은 상품으로 주문일+기준출고일+택배사배송일(1일)에 배송완료를 보장합니다.(토/공휴일은 배송기간에 포함되지 않습니다.) ※기준출고일:인터파크가 상품을 수급하여 물류창고에서 포장/출고하기까지 소요되는 시간 <업체 직접배송/오픈마켓 상품> ~ 상품은 업체가 주문을 확인하고, 출고하기까지 걸리는 시간입니다. 주문일+기준출고일+택배사배송일(2일)에 배송완료를 보장합니다.(토/공휴일은 배송기간에 포함되지 않습니다.) ※5일이내 출고가 시작되지 않을시, 오픈마켓 상품은 자동으로 주문이 취소되며, 고객님께 품절보상금을 지급해 드립니다. 배송비 안내 도서(중고도서 포함)만 구매하시면 : 배송비 2,000원 (1만원이상 구매 시 무료배송) 음반/DVD만 구매하시면 : 배송비 1,500원 (2만원이상 구매 시 무료배송) 잡지/만화/기프트만 구매하시면 : 배송비 2,000원 (2만원이상 구매 시 무료배송) 도서와 음반/DVD를 함께 구매하시면 : 배송비 1,500원 1만원이상 구매 시 무료배송) 도서와 잡지/만화/기프트/중고직배송상품을 함께 구매하시면 : 2,000원 (1만원이상 구매 시 무료배송) 업체직접배송상품을 구매시 : 업체별로 상이한 배송비 적용    * 세트상품의 경우 부분취소 시 추가 배송비가 부과될 수 있습니다.    * 북카트에서 배송비없애기 버튼을 클릭하셔서, 동일업체상품을 조금 더 구매하시면, 배송비를 절약하실 수 있습니다. 해외배송 안내 인터파크도서에서는 국내에서 주문하시거나 해외에서 주문하여 해외로 배송을 원하실 경우 DHL과 특약으로 책정된 요금표에    의해 개인이 이용하는 경우보다 배송요금을 크게 낮추며 DHL(www.dhl.co.kr)로 해외배송 서비스를 제공합니다. 해외배송은 도서/CD/DVD 상품에 한해 서비스하고 있으며, 다른 상품을 북카트에 함께 담으실 경우 해외배송이 불가합니다. 해외주문배송 서비스는 인터파크 도서 회원 가입을 하셔야만 신청 가능합니다. 알아두세요!!! 도매상 및 제작사 사정에 따라 품절/절판 등의 사유로 취소될 수 있습니다. 오픈마켓업체의 배송지연시 주문이 자동으로 취소될 수 있습니다. 출고가능 시간이 서로 다른 상품을 함께 주문할 경우 출고가능 시간이 가장 긴 기준으로 배송됩니다. 유통의 특성상 출고기간은 예정보다 앞당겨지거나 늦춰질 수 있습니다. 택배사 배송일인 서울 및 수도권은 1~2일, 지방은 2~3일, 도서, 산간, 군부대는 3일 이상의 시간이 소요됩니다.